Rush to install offshore wind as 2020 Euro target looms
€200bn of Capital Expenditure will result in installed capacity >70GW by 2025
Now in its seventh edition, the new Douglas-Westwood (DW) World Offshore Wind Market Forecast provides a ten-year view of the sector through to 2025. Cumulative offshore wind capacity is forecast to reach 74GW, driven by a large number of developments taking place in the UK, Germany and China and strengthened by the growth of new entrants to the offshore wind sector, such as France and the USA.
Following a strong year of offshore wind activity in 2015 (3.8GW installed), capacity installed will dip in 2016 to 1.5GW. However, capacity will return to an upward trend, peaking at 9.2GW in 2022. Capital Expenditure (Capex) on projects which have surpassed the conceptual stage of development will total €200 billion (bn) between 2016 and 2025, with potential upside of €70bn (“Expected Capex”).
Capital costs have reduced in recent years, predominantly due to the larger sizes of turbines installed, resulting in less infrastructure (such as foundations) being required per MWh generated. This upsizing presents new challenges for installation contractors but should result in lower operational expenditures once wind farms become operational.
The UK will add circa 10GW of capacity over the next decade, with most of this activity expected to occur by 2022, as Round 3 developments take place. Germany will also install over 10GW but has a longer term outlook, with activity levels peaking in 2021. China is expected to install over 10GW of capacity, lower than previously expected but still representing a strong growth market.
Emerging markets include countries such as the USA and France, who are expected to have their first operational wind farms in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The USA is expected to install 1.8GW of offshore capacity over the next decade, and France 3.2GW.
Key Themes
The report provides detailed market forecasts through to 2025 and is essential reading for companies working within the offshore wind sector. The report focuses on: •Key drivers – a discussion of factors driving offshore wind installation activity including low carbon targets, rising energy demand and the need to replace power generation capacity. •Commercial insights – including analysis of cost pressures on capital, lifetime costs, risk factors and typical financing models. •Technology review – analysis of research and development (R&D) priority areas. •Supply chain – a review of the main players, strengths & weaknesses of contracting strategies and supply chain development challenges. •Ten-year market forecast – for new capacity, capital expenditure, operating expenditure, wind turbines, foundations, cabling, substations and vessels. •Country analysis – detailed operational & capital expenditure forecast, including by capacity and segment analysis.
NEW FOR 2016: •Component forecasts – translate “Expected Capex” into expected capacity and associated components, assuming a proportion of concept / speculative projects go ahead towards the end of the forecast period. •Helicopter forecast – assessment of demand for construction and operations and maintenance (O&M) support, as a result of increased helicopter use as wind farms are installed far from shore. •Key themes – discussion around new trends in the industry including: new technologies, clustering, repowering and logistical solutions including helicopters and service operation vessels (SOVs).
Why Purchase the World Offshore Wind Market Forecast?
DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
The report is essential for companies working within the offshore wind sector, wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes: •Industry consultation – discussion with a wide-range of companies including: project developers, equipment manufacturers, and installation contractors. Throughout the report we highlight pertinent quotes, related to specific aspects of the market. •Unique and proprietary data – detailed by project in global offshore wind database. Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation. •Detailed methodology – our forecast provides a ‘medium-case’ scenario for market activity, drawn from our databases, which enables the forecasts to be established on a project-by-project basis; taking into account factors such as project size, location, financial backing and progress to date. •Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year forecast of offshore wind expenditure. •Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all of our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.
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